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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. In practice, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest surprise.

But this year's competition is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime also-rans improving in unison. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing several other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a normal year!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still