A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
